SignalHub records later market moves from each signal's timestamp and publishes the sample size, scoring method, and limitations.
What period does this scorecard cover?
The scorecard is forward-recorded from signal timestamps beginning Oct 1, 2026; the database currently contains 868 signals. These are forward-recorded observations since tracking began, not a backtest.
Whale move
A hit means price moves with the tracked wallet's side after 4h / 24h.
Mainnet
4h
Samples40
Benchmark-net hit rate42.5%
Average excess return−0.3%
Before benchmark−0.5%
24h
Samples38
Benchmark-net hit rate55.3%
Average excess return−0.3%
Before benchmark−0.4%
HIP-3
4h
Samples9
Benchmark-net hit rate66.7%
Average excess return+0.2%
Before benchmark+0.1%
Low sample (9/20); for reference only
24h
Samples7
Benchmark-net hit rate57.1%
Average excess return−0.2%
Before benchmark−0.4%
Low sample (7/20); for reference only
Smart-money move
A hit means price follows the qualified wallets' net flow after 4h / 24h.
Mainnet
4h
Samples12
Benchmark-net hit rate33.3%
Average excess return−0.4%
Before benchmark−0.4%
Low sample (12/20); for reference only
24h
Samples10
Benchmark-net hit rate40.0%
Average excess return−0.0%
Before benchmark−0.0%
Low sample (10/20); for reference only
Crowded rally
A hit means returns underperform the HIP-3 benchmark after 4h / 24h.
HIP-3
4h
Samples7
Benchmark-net hit rate57.1%
Average excess return+0.1%
Before benchmark+0.1%
Low sample (7/20); for reference only
24h
Samples6
Benchmark-net hit rate50.0%
Average excess return+0.2%
Before benchmark+0.1%
Low sample (6/20); for reference only
Fake consensus
A hit means price moves against the dominant wallet crowd after 4h / 24h.
Mainnet
4h
Samples15
Benchmark-net hit rate33.3%
Average excess return−0.4%
Before benchmark−0.3%
Low sample (15/20); for reference only
24h
Samples14
Benchmark-net hit rate35.7%
Average excess return−1.0%
Before benchmark−1.1%
Low sample (14/20); for reference only
HIP-3
4h
Samples20
Benchmark-net hit rate58.8%
Average excess return+0.1%
Before benchmark+0.2%
Low sample (17/20); for reference only
24h
Samples18
Benchmark-net hit rate46.7%
Average excess return+0.4%
Before benchmark−0.0%
Low sample (15/20); for reference only
Liquidation alert
A hit means price moves toward the watched position's liquidation price after 4h / 24h.
Mainnet
4h
Samples29
Benchmark-net hit rate51.9%
Average excess return+0.4%
Before benchmark+0.5%
24h
Samples26
Benchmark-net hit rate75.0%
Average excess return+0.9%
Before benchmark+1.0%
HIP-3
4h
Samples52
Benchmark-net hit rate66.0%
Average excess return+0.2%
Before benchmark+0.1%
24h
Samples51
Benchmark-net hit rate43.5%
Average excess return−0.2%
Before benchmark−0.4%
Whale-hunt risk
A hit means price moves against a position toward its public liquidation price after 4h / 24h.
HIP-3
4h
Samples28
Benchmark-net hit rate42.9%
Average excess return+0.0%
Before benchmark+0.0%
24h
Samples26
Benchmark-net hit rate50.0%
Average excess return−0.2%
Before benchmark−0.2%
Price move
A hit means only mainnet upward surges are scored for underperformance versus BTC; downward moves and HIP-3 show absolute movement only after 4h / 24h.
Mainnet
4h
Samples24
Benchmark-net hit rate71.4%
Average excess return+1.7%
Before benchmark+2.2%
Low sample (7/20); for reference only
24h
Samples24
Benchmark-net hit rate71.4%
Average excess return+0.8%
Before benchmark+1.0%
Low sample (7/20); for reference only
HIP-3
No directional prediction
4h
Samples24
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move1.9%
24h
Samples22
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move2.5%
Extreme funding
A hit means mainnet: a hit is price moving against the paying side (net of the benchmark); HIP-3 shows movement only after 4h / 24h.
Mainnet
4h
Samples80
Benchmark-net hit rate55.0%
Average excess return+0.1%
Before benchmark+0.2%
24h
Samples79
Benchmark-net hit rate72.2%
Average excess return+2.2%
Before benchmark+2.4%
HIP-3
No directional prediction
4h
Samples105
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move0.8%
24h
Samples105
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move2.2%
Open interest anomaly
Shows only average absolute price movement after 4h / 24h; it does not predict direction.
Mainnet
No directional prediction
4h
Samples35
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move2.5%
24h
Samples33
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move7.5%
HIP-3
No directional prediction
4h
Samples67
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move1.0%
24h
Samples59
Benchmark-net hit rate—
Average absolute move1.9%
Polymarket odds
Shows only average absolute price movement after 4h / 24h; it does not predict direction.
Mainnet outcomes subtract the same-period BTC return, and HIP-3 outcomes subtract the S&P 500 return; repeated signals for the same coin and direction within 24 hours count once. Each horizon is measured after 4h and 24h; fees and funding are excluded.
Large position adds, flips, smart flow, and HIP-3 crowded rallies are scored directionally; fake consensus, liquidation, and hunt risk are scored in the opposite direction.
Mainnet funding is scored against the paying side; HIP-3 funding, open-interest anomalies, prediction-market odds, and HIP-3 price moves show average absolute movement only.
Only upward mainnet price moves are scored as overheat signals; downward moves show movement only.
Periods with fewer than 20 samples are marked low-sample; their statistics are for reference only.
Why are drawdown and backtest figures not shown?
The system does not calculate portfolio drawdown or historical backtests, so those figures are not provided; forward records are not a promise of future returns.
SignalHub signal performance and methodology | SignalHub
