XMR up 7.8% in 1h, breaking the 7d high at 621.62 — overheated, don't chase

11× normal volatility; 1h volume $13.88M, 16× the prior 24h average; open-interest change over the same window +15.3%. Mainnet 60-day backtest: similar surges underperformed the market by 0.9% on average over 24h and did so 63% of the time; however, prices still rose over 10% in about 30% of cases. This is not a reason to short directly. Longs are still paying high funding (annualized +65.3%), adding to the crowding.