Markets now price roughly a 50-51% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, down from 70-75% previously, following New York Fed President John Williams' statement of "no rush to act" on inflation. Traders still see potential for one hike by year-end.
What it moves
Bull vs bear
Bulls read the softer hike odds as reduced pressure on risk assets and a signal that the Fed remains data-dependent rather than hawkish. Bears see the tempered expectations as confirmation that inflation is still a concern, limiting the scope for aggressive easing and capping upside for high-beta crypto.